Computing and the Future HW 5 - Prediction Markets, Etc.

Q1)  Report on two prediction markets other than intrade.com.

The first prediction market under report, PredictIt.org, is operated from the University of Wellington in Victoria, New Zealand with permission of the CFTC. It brokers a broad array of political election and world issue outcomes. It features identity checking against a government issued ID and will not register users that it cannot verify. According to James Carville, Political Pundit, "PredictIt is the most exciting engine in terms of political opinion." 

PredictIt.org

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One example is the contracts for Democratic nominee for the US 2020 election. Amy Klobuchar, whose visibility increased after the Brett Kavanaugh hearings, stood in the snow campaigning when she announced. This was not enough to put her flush with the top contracts, Bernie Sanders and Kamala Harris who are tied at 21 cents a share. Bernie announced his run 3 days ago at this writing, while Kamala Harris has been in the race for 32 days. Bernie is doing pretty well given that Harris had a 29 day head-start in terms of announcing, he was trailing by a penny yesterday and has caught up in just 3 days.

Klobuchar entered 12 days ago and Cory Booker 20 days ago, so they could be headed for the "also ran" category. I jump immediately to the specifics of current politics because it shows the power of prediction markets. When a tool allows us to focus on our problem, rather than its own usage, it becomes a true utility. With InTrade.com in the rear-view mirror we see the power of prediction markets to themselves become influencers of public opinion and participation. Joe Biden has not announced, and is sitting at a 18 cent share, down 2 cents from yesterday. Maybe the markets know something that Joe doesn't! I find this all very exciting. Drilling down past first impressions we obtain the full ranking of US 2020 Democratic Candidates sorted by share price.

PredictIt.org

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The presidential panel from PredictIt.org shows the current expectations of the 2020 presidential election:

PredictIt.org

Taking today's figures and summing them by party we obtain that, if everyone shows up to vote, the odds are 59/41 in favor of a Democratic president in the next election. Honestly, this makes me feel more at ease for some reason. But there is reason for anxiety and here's why: Right now, it's a toss up between Kamala Harris and Bernie Sanders. If the ticket splits because of people we admire like Jessica DeLoach Sabin saying that Bernie isn't a 'real' Democrat, then the odds shift to 46/41/14, Democrat, Republican, Bernie respectively. Bernie loses instantly and the outcome of the election bogs down into the noise signal, with a possible repetition of the 2016 outcome.

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The 'second' prediction under report is an ensemble of of three emerging prediction markets (PM) surveyed by Ian Edwards in his Medium article.

Here is a comparison table generated from the information in the article:

Ian makes an interesting remark/distinction:

"The new generation of prediction market platforms are using trustless, public blockchains, such as Ethereum and Bitcoin, to allow for, in theory, greater transparency and remove the need for a central operator."

This lack of human control, a complete delegation to the blockchain is a change of paradigm whose effects are yet to be fully realized. I dispute the term trustless. Blockchain algorithms achieve public confidence (aka trust) by the distributed accounting ledger and proof-of-work functions that serve as stand-ins for traditional human / institutional trust and replace them with redundant error-correcting codes and watts expended creating hash codes. 

In the three panels below a terse screen capture is provided of the three sites reviewed:

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The Augur.net site while functioning, lacks the sophisticated user-interface of PredictIt.org. It supports politics and sports prediction contracts:

Auger.net

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The Gnosis website and its Olympia application is not yet functioning.

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The stox.com site functions, but also lacks the sophisticated user-interface of PredictIt.org. It hosts mostly sports predictions from Europe, and NBA basketball in the US.

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Q2)  Critique the prediction market idea. Why might their predictions be wrong?

The InTrade.com Romney incident in 2013, covered in class, showed that people will try to manipulate prediction markets even if it costs them a great deal of money. In the Romney incident, one broker ran the table to the tune of more than four million dollars... and lost it all! So the prediction was wrong, but the system rewarded those who bet the right way. So even when prediction markets are wrong, they reward those who see things correctly.

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Q3) Pausch claims, "... when you do the right thing, good stuff has a way of happening." And later, "It's not about how to achieve your dreams, it's about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you [i.e., will happen automatically]."

This is an example of something called the "just world hypothesis." On the other hand, there is a well known book entitled When Bad Things Happen to Good People. And recall that Pausch himself gave this lecture after being diagnosed with terminal pancreatic cancer.     Discuss your opinions on this important issue.

The event I always return to when weighing the "just world" idea is the Jewish Holocaust of WWII. Six million Jews were murdered by the German Nazis and more than twenty million Russians died. There is no "just world" in these situations and as I heard one Memorial attendee say, "It is beyond theology". Since that time there has been the Pol Pot genocide where nearly two million Cambodians, doctors, lawyers and intellectuals (25% of the population) were murdered. There was the Rwandan genocide where nearly a million Tutsi were murdered at the hands of the Hutu. These and many more genocides throughout the world are enumerated with more clarity here. My point is, that in a just world, mass genocides do not pop up every few years. So there is no just world at the world scope of human affairs.

There is also no justice in the regional scopes where those who carry more military, political, wealth, or religious influence are in control. We see the military and political injustices in Central America, with kidnappings, murders, extortion of those who do not toe the line. In this country we see that those with wealth encounter a different flavor of justice than those without the means to assemble "Dream Teams" of legal defense attorneys when they are charged. Many get caught in a revolving door of contact with the justice system when they do not pay punitive fines for minor offenses. Those caught in a web of religious influence like those who have been sexually abused by 6000 priests in the US Catholic Church and 700 victims in the Southern Baptist denomination.

Those who are lawyers or have legal training can gain more latitude in legal matters, they can exploit loopholes in the law to their own benefit, that those who are not so trained cannot. So there is no just-world for those without legal expertise or the means to secure it.

Physicians and those with specialized medical training are able to marshal knowledge, supplies, drugs, and clinical tests for themselves and their families, that those without access cannot. Their domain expertise confers on them an advantage, both in times of political stability and social turmoil. Further they are financially equipped to relocate whereas those with fewer resources cannot. Consequently there is no just-world for those without medical expertise or the resources to pay for it.

I find it implausible, let me sharpen that, I find it impossible that any significant number of the victims in the the genocide, abuse, and injustice cases deserved what happened to them. So the world is not a just place, and there is no reason to believe anything has changed that will fix that, or that it will ever be fixed. Injustice is hard-wired into the system. So we must attempt to survive in the presence of it.

So does this injustice give us permission to emulate it? By no means. The first objective of any reasonable caring and moral person is to obstruct the harm that is in the world, and the harm that fulments these situations. Reducing harm is the single most important thing any of us can do. As Edmund Burke said, "All that is necessary for the triumph of evil is that good men do nothing."

I have also noticed a peculiar 'complementarity' as Niels Bohr (1885-1962) put it, almost a conservation principle regarding the duality of good and evil (wave and particle nature of physics). When awful things are happening in one place, equal and oppositely wonderful things are happening in another place. So the trick, if there is one, is to stay in the arena of the wonderful and avoid the arena of horror. But for many wonderful people, that has not been possible to do. As for myself, with limited time, I focus on the wonderful, hoping the evil will eat itself. Often, if one is patient, it does.

Q4) How your project topic will affect your personal future.

I have five candidate projects and I have not heard a preference expressed for any of them. Soon the wave-function of five will collapse to one or possibly two. For the time being I will pursue this multi-processing illusion and answer the question for each of them.

PMTMS: Permanent Magnet Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

I do not know. On the positive side it could help me focus or provide some kind of therapeutic effect, or possibly lead to some kind of computer-brain interface. On the negative side, there is always the possibility of an accident, a memory erasure or injury of some kind.

CNN: feature extension of the TensorFlow Neural Network Playground

The effect that working with the Convolutional Neural Networks in the Tensorflow playground has had on me is this: I have already seen it, understood it, and extended it. This proved my assertion about basis functions mentioned in a previous homework. Executing this project helped me become familiar with Typescript, Node.js, and npm, the JavaScript package manager for node.js. Npm is in widespread use. This helps improve, extend and maintain my machine learning literacy.

My objective in choosing this project would be to transmit that benefit to other computer and information science students.

RNN: predicting signals over time using machine learning.

The effect that working with the Recurrent Neural Networks in Tensorflow and Python Jupyter notebooks has had on me is this: I have seen it, understood it, and am in the process of codifying, extending and generalizing it. 

I have done a lot of work in time and frequency domain signal processing. In fact I have written a book on it. What interests me about RNN's is that they constitute a smart predictive filter that is calibrated using data, but is not limited to a specific choice of basis functions, say like Fourier analysis is. The machine learning model is trained against a very general set of signal inputs and learns to output the most likely signal as a result. That is a deeply powerful tool whose application could benefit me and others.

My objective in choosing this project would be to transmit that benefit to other computer and information science students.

SGL: Soft Gate Logic as a future computing architecture

The effect that defining and articulating Soft Gate Logic has had on me is this: I have defined it, solved some theoretical problems necessary for its correct definition, understood it, and am in the process of codifying and using it. 

What interests me about SGL is that it constitutes a dramatic extension to Boolean logic, that in all cases reverts to current computing, but enables fuzzy computing. It is also a gateway to quantum computing, both in terms of understanding and using.

My objective in choosing this project would be to participate in the revolution that such an extension would provide.

WQC: Warm Quantum Computer

The effect that defining and articulating Warm Quantum Computer has had on me is this: I have defined some key pieces of it, have proposed how those might be built, but I'm just at the very beginning of understanding its potential impact. My hope is that it could be used to create a more powerful imaging technology, a quantum camera, if you will that would have applications in medicine, photography, videography, communication and entertainment. 

What interests me about WQC is that it could conceivably create a more affordable quantum computer, and thus a "Personal Quantum Computer".

My objective in choosing this project would be to participate in the revolution that such a technology would provide.

Q5) Identify 8+ sources of information about your project topic. Provide the URLs and give 2-3 sentences describing each one.

PMTMS: Permanent Magnet Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation

• Description of my 2006 experiment.
  I dug up the transcript of a TMS experiment I did 13 years ago.
• If was going to design version 2 I would use these magnets.
  Rare earth neodymium magnets are now available in high intensity versions.
• Shapeways
  A 3D printing service that can be used for rapid prototyping of TMS equipment.
• Here is an article on dosing.
  It is important to consider dosing in any brain stimulating technology,
  whether electrical, magnetic or pharmacological.
• Here is an article on the circuitry, note the 4.5 kV pulse voltage!
  rTMS pulses fed to low resistance coils produce very powerful
  magnetic transients. This is important to realize.
  To some degree rTMS is a blunt instrument.
• Wiki on Repetitive Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation
  Risks increase at higher frequencies of operation
• RTMS Hardware
  The machinery for rTMS is available in a variety of models and form factors.
• RTMS Overview
  Basic description of the medical technology including enumeration of those
  who should not have the procedure.
• NIH Overview of Brain Stimulation Therapies
  This site compares and contrasts various brain stimulation therapies.

I decided to consider a gel-brain stimulator to show the effects of pmTMS without the thorny issue of human subjects. Here is a first step:

CNN: feature extension of the TensorFlow Neural Network Playground 

• Neural Network Playground
  One of the best technology demonstrators for Convolution Neural Networks
• My Basis Function Additions to the Neural Network Playground
  Modified Version that recognizes spiral function example faster
• Neural Net Playground Source Code (Github)
  Source code for the Playground, hosted on Github
  An amazing asset, written in Typescript
• Tensorflow -  An Open Source Machine Learning Framework
  Google's ML contribution which is a world leading library for AI
• Tensorflow Eager Execution
  Tensorflow can execute from a user defined graph
  or straight from procedural code. Both had pro's and con's.
• Tensorboard
  Tensorboard enables visualization of deep neural networks.
• Jupyter Notebook Tutorial: Introduction, Setup, and Walkthrough
  Jupyter is the premiere prototyping environment for machine learning
  in the world.
• Python for Data Science and Machine Learning Bootcamp
  A fantastic Python immersion course taught by Jose Portillo
• Clear Algorithms: Deriving the Gradient Descent Rule
  A canonical document and reference for machine learning algorithms.

RNN: predicting signals over time using machine learning

• Jupyter Widgets - the ipywidgets library
  Typical Invocation >  from ipywidgets import *
  Provides interactivity for Python programs running in Jupyter Notebooks
• NumPy - scientific computing library for Python
  Typical Invocation >  import numpy as np
  Provides numerical analysis data structures and routines
• Pandas - Python Data Analysis Library
  Typical Invocation > import pandas as pd
  Provides Procedural 'Excel-Like' Data Tables and Operators
• SciPy (“Sigh Pie”) - open-source S/W for math, science, and engineering
  Typical Invocation > import scipy as sp
  Example Invocation > from scipy.integrate import trapz, simps
  Numerical integration using trapezoidal and Simpson's rule
• Scikit-learn - Machine Learning Library for Python
  Example Invocation > from sklearn.metrics import mean_squared_error
  Compute the RMS error in a calculuation
• Matplotlib Library - Python Rich 2D Plotting Library
  Typical Invocation >  import matplotlib.pyplot as plt
  Special Invocation > %matplotlib inline, enables real-time visualization
• Mlab - Python scripting for 3D plotting with mayavi
  Typical Invocation > from mayavi import mla
                             > mlab.init_notebook()
  Enables 3D visualization and rendering in the notebook
• Math Library - Python Math Library
  Typical Invocation > import mathThis library is Python's version of math.h from the C language.

SGL: Soft Gate Logic as a future computing architecture

• Analog Computers
  I am interested in these because prior to the digital age,
  computing with integrators and differentiators implemented as
  operational amplifiers was being developed, but this development
  was curtailed with the appearance of digital machinery.
  This is a shame because analog computing is real-time computing.
• Missile guidance
  The V2 rocket was the first rocket to use an analog guidance system,
  so it is good to review the history of missile guidance for this technology.
  They were also incorporated into bomb sights.
• Inertial guidance
  Inertial guidance systems were a generalization to other forms of transport.
• GPS navigation
  GPS navigation is the terminal node of current development for guidance systems
  it would be interesting to consider a soft gate version of GPS and its gold code.
• Fuzzy Logic
  This is an overview of fuzzy logic that define logic on the continuous interval [0,1]
  It has been around since the 1920's in one form or another.
• Fuzzy Thinking
  A book about thinking with Fuzzy Logic, as opposed to just being confused.
• Complex Numbers
  Complex numbers and analysis can be implemented using two fuzzy bits.
  This is the natural gateway to quantum computing.
  Everyone should know how to add, subtract, multiply and divide complex numbers.
• Wave Functions
  Wave functions are an alternate view of reality, contrasting with particles.As such the are fundamentally closer to reality, as well as being less intuitive.

WQC: Warm Quantum Computer 

• Gisin's New York Times Article on Entanglement
  This exciting 1997 article discusses Nicolas Gisin's experiment of that time.
  It was my first exposure to photon entanglement.
• Definition of a qubit
  This wiki describes qubits and develops the Bloch sphere
  model of the qubit and bra-ket notation
• The IBM quantum computer you can use
  This is a real code-and-go quantum computer
  I find QC results and ML results similar in that they fuzzy,
  unlike the exact results we are used to in numerical analysis.
• Lithium Niobate as a photon splitter (downconversion)
  It is this technology that Gisin and others have used to
  generate entangled photons.
• Three solution photon combiner (upconversion)
  This article describes a novel three-dye system for
  combining two photons back into one.
  This is critical for me, providing an 'inverse-operator'.
• Braket notation for quantum mechanics
  This video runs over an hour but is worth every second.
  The instructor starts with simple matrix notation and
  ends up explaining a good deal of quantum mechanics and Dirac notation.
• How to add 1 and 1 on a quantum computer
  This blog entry I did earlier in preparing for this class
  addresses the, "so what's it good for?" question from first principles.
• Solving Rubik's cube on a quantum computer
  There is a simultaneity and interconnectedness to the faces of a Rubik's cube.
  They are, to some degree, entangled with each other and to some degree
  independent. I'm interested in programming languages for QC that
  would provide for their rapid and intuitive embedding.

Building Your Personal Future

Q6) ("Do"). Based on your work on this topic, identify something that will progress you toward your vision, such as a strategic action that helps address a strategic issue, such as a core strategic issue that is a prerequisite to others. (On your blog, simply note if you succeeded on this question, but don't put the answer there.)

I have ruminated on this question. A useful construct was to consider others who have done so as well, adding a people and experience dimension to the activity.

Q7) ("Monitor"). Consider the results of the "Do" step you just completed. How well did it work, or is it working now? If well, then you are on track. If instead any problems of any kind arose, see 3.  (On your blog, note if it worked or not, but don't put what it was.)

It worked out but I have sustained a minor injury, which may or may not be related, but could be a warning to proceed with care. 

Q8) ("Accountability"). Consider the results of the "Monitor" step you just completed. If it worked, reward yourself! If things didn't go as well as hoped for, analyze why and what you could do to circumvent them. Take notes on this for future reference. (On your blog, note the result of this question in general terms, but don't put any details.)

It is important to create sandboxes where innovations may be safely tested and evaluated before they are distributed or disclosed.

9) Grad students only. Read 20 pages in the book you have obtained. Explain what you agree with, disagree with, learned from it, and how your views agree with or disagree with the reviewers of the book.

I have moved this answer to my ongoing review of the book, "The Human Race to the Future" a single curated document that is here. In the session for this question I reviewed chapters nine and ten of the book. 

Computing and the Future 11 - Permanent Magnet Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (pmTMS)

At this writing in February 2019, while reading D. Berleants "The Human Race to the Future", reviewed here, my interest has been rekindled in Remote Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation.

A few years ago, to be specific, on or before Wednesday, March 1, 2006, I assembled a Permanent Magnet version of a Transcranial Magnetic Stimulator, which I named the vSignal I. I have a habit of prefixing my inventions with a letter vee to personalize them and ease the task of naming them. 

I have recovered a report I produced after creating and using this simple device which is shown in top and bottom views in the pictures below. It was two strong magnets poled along their faces whose rotation should induce a mild electric field in conductive materials. My reasoning is that this was as safe and non-intrusive approach that could be approached gradually with low risk by closing the distance between the spinning red disk and the scalp.

I have attached a complete transcript of my 2006 experiment:

L. Van Warren <van@wdv.com> 

Wed 3/1/2006 11:20 PM

Strong rare earth magnets were mounted in a red plastic lid with a separation of approximately 2" from pole to pole.

The magnets are half-moon type used to park the heads on disk drives. They require several pounds of separation force.
The magnets are attached to larger half moon metal plates and the plates are mounted so that they are captured by the lid in the event of a centrifugal failure.
The lid assembly was affixed to a drill shaft and spun in a reversible electric drill at peak speeds of 1800 RPM. With two magnets, this provides a peak pulse rate of approximately 60 Hz.
To do: measure the strength and polarization of the magnets.
 Measure the rotation speed of the magnets.
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Clear polyester tape approximately 2" in width was affixed to the lid to cover the screw tops, which were countersunk into the lid to prevent catching in the hair.
After mounting in the drill, I spun the device and under my own power placed the spinning lid containing the magnets in close proximity to my left prefrontal cortex.
The sensation I noticed most strongly was warmth emanating from what felt like the center of my head. This warmth was accompanied by what can only be described as a slow and systematic clearing of the mind. 

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I then mounted the device in a drill press with a long swing arm and configured the system so that I could sit under it while it rotated at various preprogrammed speeds.
Again the principle effects were a warming sensation and a preference for a position to the left of the corpus callosum and forward of the medial plane of the skull, but not in front.
I was observed in these experiments by Marilyn Fulper who neither encouraged nor discouraged the operation of the system.  

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After placing Vaseline in my hair to reduce the changes of the lid catching, I sat under the drill press in various configurations for 10 to 15 minutes.
As time was running out, I then discontinued the experiment after exposing all surfaces of the top, front and back of my skull to the rotating magnets. 

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As I exited the site I noticed a separation between memories of what I usually do when I leave.
1) I did not want to play my guitar. Usually I do as I leave.
2) I became objective, descriptive, and reporting with a more vivid than usual lexicon.
3) I became more fanciful in my thinking while looking at a sunset I considered what it would be like to have super powers.
Trees took on a dark and ominous appearance, and changes in lighting seemed more dramatic than usual.
4) On arriving home the effects continued for approximately another 15 minutes. 

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This evening I repeated exposure to the magnets with similar results.
The principle effect I notice is a clearing of the mind and an warm sensation from the shoulder up.
Part of this could be the effect of holding the drill over my head for up to two minutes.
ccc,
- Van

Here we are nearly 13 years later and I wanted to try to improve the device I created originally. I had forgotten that I also mounted it in a drill press so that I could sit underneath it, as one sits in a hair dryer.

Following a query by Dr. Berleant I designed an improved rotor which would produce stronger pulses owing to the the stronger magnetization, and also by mounting the disk magnets, poled with respect to their faces in opposite north, south sequence.

A next step in developing this capability would be to develop an instrumented "Gel-Brain" Simulator to simulate the magnetic and electrical conductance effects of the human head. This would enable the strength, intensity and location of the stimulation could be better understood prior to exposure to human subjects, which would be yours truly in any initial outings.

Besides quantifying the amount of energy transferred to live tissue, this device could help rule out any placebo effects and confabulation seen in the transcript of my 2006 experiment.

The Gel-Brain would be equipped with small inductive loop coils made of 40 gauge varnished copper wire. These could measure both induced voltage and magnetic field strength. Embedded in the gel could also be small compasses and possibly LED lights connected to the inductive loops to show voltages.

Computing and the Future HW 4 - Prediction Markets and Candidate Projects

Prediction markets for telling the future

Question 1) (40 pts.) Recall the topic that you did a Delphi analysis on and/or a topic that you wrote about in other HWs. Think about finalizing this as a term project topic, or decide on another topic. Now you have a topic (you can change it later if you decide to). Write 300 words (or more) if it is a paper or short story, or the equivalent in effort if your project is a software system, skit, musical performance, painting, etc., including a plan or an outline for its completion. Also, answer the question, "What would be a good thing to do next on this project?"


Recall the Delphi topic, my question was:

When will Uber Flying Taxis happen?

This was sharpened to:

What month and year will 'Uber' Flying Taxis happen in Silicon Valley?

It was answered using the Delphi method and the results are here.

In my previous homework, "The Act of Measurement", I discussed how the "month" part of the revised question speciously introduced false precision into the analysis process. I coined the term, "possibility noise" to describe how  false precision can lead to prediction error and outright confabulation. This led me to repeat the homework with less date precision and increased prediction utility. The best version of this question is now:

What year will 'Uber' Flying Taxis happen in Silicon Valley?

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Recall a topic that you wrote about in other HWs:

I subsequently defined four other topics as candidate projects, and recently wrote about a fifth one. I'll start with it.

PMTMS: Permanent Magnet Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation
CNN: feature extension of the TensorFlow Neural Network Playground
RNN: demonstration for predicting signals over time using machine learning.
SGL: Soft Gate Logic as a future computing architecture
WQC: Warm Quantum Computer

Status of Candidate Projects

PMTMS: Permanent Magnet TMS
I experimented with this a few years ago. Recent discussions have renewed my interest in this and I have done some additional design work. To allay concerns about human subject testing I want to create a gel-brain model with suspended ferromagnetic particles to demonstrate the induced electric and magnetic fields.

My plan for completion is this.

1. Create a budget for the project.
2. Design gel-brain simulator.
3. Fabricate gel-brain.
4. Fabricate improved magnetic rotor.
5. Fabricate improved exciter electric field screen.
6. Design and build a controller for the rotor(s).
7. Design and build a controller for the exciter field.
8. Test and visualize the induced fields on the gel brain model.
9. Measure and compute the induced fields intensity and distribution.

The next step is to create a budget for the project, including a parts list with estimated fabrication costs. I will keep the documentation on this in this separate blog entry.

CNN: Convolutional Neural Network
My plan for completion is this. I'm done. I finished the Convolutional Neural Network project by extending the TensorFlow Neural Network Playground. The original project by Daniel Smilkov and Shan Carter is here. The version I extended and modified is here. 

My extensions make the point that basis functions in the feature recognition set enable the CNN to perform better. Said another way, "If your training set contains only dogs, don't ask your AI to recognize cats". 

This extended Smilkov-Carter playground is an excellent demonstration that I can give on demand. Everyone in the CS department should see it. It introduces a dramatic machine learning visual presentation. You can diff my files with the original if you want to experiment with extending this ML education platform. Diff is a Unix tool that takes two directories and prints those files that differ. It is these files that I extended to generalize the example.

The next step is to demonstrate the working system in a live setting.

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RNN: Recurrent Neural Network

My plan for completion is this.

1. Assemble the components from available code.
2. Revise and update to use the most recent version of TensorFlow (TF).
3. Get it working for time series data with a single channel of known function.
4. Get it working for time series data with a single channel of known data.
5. Get it working for time series with two channels of known function.
6. An two-channel example of this is predator-prey populations over time.

I have completed steps 1 and 3. Steps 2, 4, & 6 are pending.

The next step is number 2, revise to use most recent version of TF.

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SGL: Soft Gate Logic

I have shortened the name of this candidate project to Soft Gate Logic. Growing from my interest in quantum computing I have build a simple simulator for soft gate logic. Here is my current viewpoint on this work:

Soft gate logic is a gateway technology to quantum computing.

In SGL a bit is represented as a continuous number between zero and one on the closed  and continuous real number interval [0, 1]. It degenerates to traditional Boolean logic but adds continuous interior values. This enables fuzzy queries that do not have a hard true-false answer. It cannot represent the entanglement or superposition of states that quantum computing can represent, nor can it represent complex number fields where one component is imaginary. Complex fields are useful for representing particles that go in and out of existence. Fuzzy queries are useful for questions like, "Given a list of hotels, what is the best one to stay at?" SGL is easily simulated using real numbers constrained to the interval [0,1]. 

In quantum computing we make the further escalation that a bit can be a complex number represented by two soft gate bits. We furthered  allow our qubits to be entangled meaning that the state of one can be the instantaneous complement of the other, meaning there exists a dependency of the state of Bob on the state of Alice, a coincidence generated at the moment of their synthesis and remaining for the duration of their existence. This requires two soft-gates per qubit which is in bra-ket notation written a * |0> + b * |1>. In the qubit case it can be shown that a and b can both be complex, but due to constraints, there are only two degrees of freedom, thus we seek a representation of the form A + B*i where A and B are functions of a and b.

We can release the restriction that their entanglement be complementary if we so choose. We are the architects and we endow ourselves with that representational power which suits us and the kinds of problems we want to embed and solve.

I have already defined the soft-gate logic and built the continuous truth-table definitions for the natural extension of Boolean logic that occurs.

My plan for completion is this:

1. Finish implement the full extended Boolean logic in a C-based simulator.
2. Work some simple example problems to demonstrate the concept.

The next step is to fire up the simulator and examine its logic.

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WQC: Warm Quantum Computer

I have shortened the project name of 'Room-Temperature Quantum Computer' to simply 'Warm Quantum Computer'. This project is a multi-person effort, that could build upon the aforementioned projects and concept sketch provided here. The process of preparing for this class in December gave me the chance to codify some of my thoughts on this matter and I am grateful for that. I include it here for the mere assurance that it won't die in case I do. If it wasn't written down, there is always that risk.

A plan for completion is this:

1. Reproduce the lithium niobate splitter and Gisin's experiment proving entanglement at optical frequencies.
2. Create a microwave splitter whose geometry is analogous to the lithium niobate crystal structure and conduct Gisin's experiment again at microwave frequencies.
3. Implement a dye-recombiner that is the inverse of the splitter and prove that it works at optical frequencies.
4. Implement a dye-recombiner that works at microwave frequencies.
5. Implement the gyroscope equivalent circuit (GEC) documented in the concept sketch using appropriate component values for microwave frequencies.
6. Create multiple instances of the GEC to serve as qubit simulators.
7. Connect the splitters, recombiners and qubit simulators together and implement a simple quantum algorithm to demonstrate feasibility.

The next step for this project would be to confer with the IBM quantum computing team and some RF engineers and some physicists to see if qubit states could be simulated with entangled fields. It could be that some simple observation could illuminate how to best proceed or whether there was some unkillable monster that could obstruct progress.

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2) (15 pts.) Look into the intrade.com mess. What happened? What is the current status? 

According to John Cassidy of New Yorker Magazine who did an in-depth report on this, there were a confluence of several events:

• In November of 2012, "Commodity Trade Futures Commission (CFTC) sued Intrade to stop Americans from using the site, saying that it was illegally selling futures contracts, which can only be traded in the United States on a registered exchange or by special exemption."
• Intrade said that,  "it was closing down forthwith following the discovery of 'financial irregularities.'"
• As discussed in class, Cassidy explores runup of Romney contracts, when in fact, Obama was in the lead in the 2012 election.

According to this entry on Quora, the CFTC conflict dated back to 2005, when Intrade was pressured not to sell contracts on gold and crude oil and then reneged on the agreement. Further the author said that the CFTC wanted to continue its monopoly of control over Futures Markets in the United States. 

The astonishing thing to me is that, in this age of the dark web and the Silk Road, that some other fully-featured Prediction Market did not immediately pop-up in its place. As Nicholas Negroponte, who I met at the MIT Media Lab, once said, "The Internet treats censorship like damage and routes around it."

Perhaps the monopoly of the CFTC could be challenged in court, and broken up, in the way that the Bell Telephone Monopoly successfully was.

Alternately, servers could be set up in offshore locations to serve members of the world community who are not limited by the stifling regulations in the US. In that case anyone could participate that had internet access, a proxy server, a VPN account and an anonymous method of transferring funds such as Cryptocurrencies like BitCoin could theoretically participate. One has to assume that in some parallel universe of the web, this is already the case. I found one such prediction market very similar in look and feel to Intrade and operating for money called PredictIt.org. It is operated by Victoria University of Wellington, New Zealand:

The status of Intrade is that it is an empty non-functioning shell with a ghost-town website and contains no significant content meriting discussion.

3)  (15 pts.) Would your Delphi method question work as a prediction contract? How would you have to change it to make it work, if it needs to be changed?

My Delphi question, since it was time based, would definitely work as a prediction contract, albeit a multi-year one. As discussed above and earlier I did refine the question to its current version by deleting the false precision of "month" to obtain:

What year will 'Uber' Flying Taxis happen in Silicon Valley?

To contractualize the question it was evolved to:

In the event that

An Uber-owned fleet of Flying Taxis take flight
anywhere in California, USA

The start date was now, down to the second and the end date was left open so that the contract retains its value in perpetuity, but is fulfilled the moment the Delphi question is answered in the affirmative. Also the borders of "Silicon Valley" are loosely defined and evolving, so the borders of the state of California were used, since Silicon Valley is a proper subset of that.

4)  (15 pts.) Write up a prediction market contract based on your Delphi method question. It should look something like the sample contract discussed in class.

5) (15 pts.) Recall the video "Really Achieving Your Childhood Dreams." It is about the future... your future.

a) What were at least three ways he suggested to help achieve your childhood dreams? Do you agree with them? Why or why not?

I counted fifty quotes on ways Dr. Randy Pausch, Professor at CMU, explicitly suggested to help one achieve and facilitate the childhood dreams of oneself and others. Even though I have included them for completeness you don't have to read all fifty because I have distilled them down to twenty-five unique principles he espoused. I agree with all of them, except for the one where someone's head was put on a stick. Here is the fine print, taken directly from the transcript of Dr. Pausch's talk:

Fifty Quotes

1. My dad always taught me that when there’s an elephant in the room, introduce them.
2. When you are 8 or 9 years old and you look at the TV set, men are landing on the moon, anything’s possible.And that’s something we should not lose sight of, is that the inspiration and the permission to dream is huge. 
3. And then I hit the first brick wall, []. I know, I was heartbroken. I was like, I worked so hard! And so I read the literature very carefully and it turns out that NASA
4.  Have something to bring to the table, because that will make you more welcome
5. And that’s a really good story because it’s all about fundamentals. Fundamentals, fundamentals, fundamentals. You’ve got to get the fundamentals down because otherwise the fancy stuff isn’t going to work.
6. Coach Setliff - he taught me a lot about the power of enthusiasm. 
7. And these kinds of head fake learning are absolutely important. And you should keep your eye out for them because they’re everywhere.
8. At a certain point you just realize there are some things you are not going to do, so maybe you just want to stand close to the people. 
9. And so I bided my time and then I graduated with my Ph.D. from Carnegie Mellon, thinking that meant me infinitely qualified to do anything. 
10. But remember, the brick walls are there for a reason. The brick walls are not there to keep us out. The brick walls are there to give us a chance to show how badly we want something. Because the brick walls are there to stop the people who don’t want it badly enough. They’re there to stop the other people. 
11. And he said yes. I said, then I would love to answer your question, but first, will you have lunch with me tomorrow? 
12. So I find myself on the phone with a guy named Jon Snoddy who is one of the most impressive guys I have ever met, 
13. And then I compiled all of that and I had to memorize it, which anybody that knows me knows that I have no memory at all, 
14. So it’s pretty easy to be smart when you’re parroting smart people. 
15. He said, when you’re pissed off at somebody and you’re angry at them, you just haven’t given them enough time. 
16. Somebody’s head’s going to go on a stick. Turns out that the person who gets his head on a stick is a dean back at the University of Virginia. 
17.  It’s very important to know when you’re in a pissing match. And it’s very important to get out of it as quickly as possible. 
18. Here’s a lesson for everybody in administration. They both said the same thing. But think about how they said it, right? [In a loud, barking voice] I don’t know! [In a pleasant voice] Well, I don’t have much information, but one of my start faculty members is here and he’s all excited so I want to learn more. They’re both ways of saying I don’t know, but boy there’s a good way and a bad way. So anyway, we got it all worked out. 
19. We published a paper. Just a nice academic cultural scandal. When we wrote the paper, the guys at Imagineering said, well let’s do a nice big picture. Like you would in a magazine. 
20. So then the question becomes, how can I enable the childhood dreams of others. 
21. And I said to Tommy, you know they’re probably not going to make those next movies. [laughter] And he said, no, THEY ARE. 
22.  every single member of my team came from Virginia to Carnegie Mellon  
23. So I said, can I do this en masse? Can I get people turned in such a way that they can be turned onto their childhood dreams?
24. There are 50 students drawn from all the different departments of the university. There are randomly chosen teams, four people per team, and they change every project. 
25. Sensei, what do I do? [laughter] And Andy thought for a minute and he said, you go back into class tomorrow and you look them in the eye and you say, “Guys, that was pretty good, but I know you can do better.”
26. I said, we’ve got to show this at the end of the semester. We’ve got to have a big show. And we booked this room, McConomy. I have a lot of good memories in this room. 
27. With some of the most brilliant, creative students from all across the campus. It just was a joy to be involved.
28. I can’t tell you beforehand, but right before they present it I can tell you if the world’s good just by the body language. If they’re standing close to each other, the world is good. 
29. And the only advice I can give you is, find somebody better than you to hand it to. And that’s what I did. 
30. The keys to success were that Carnegie Mellon gave us the reins. Completely gave us the reins. We had no deans to report to. We reported directly to the provost, which is great because the provost is way too busy to watch you carefully. 
31.  And you get a bar chart telling you on a ranking of how easy you are to work with, where you stacked up against your peers.
32. The best way to teach somebody something is to have them think they’re learning something else. I’ve done it my whole career. 
33. Somewhere along the way there’s got to be some aspect of what lets you get to achieve your dreams. First one is the rule of parents, mentors and students. I was blessed to have been born to two incredible people. 
34. Other people who help us besides our parents: our teachers, our mentors, our friends, our colleagues. 
35. And he put his arm around my shoulders and we went for a little walk and he said, Randy, it’s such a shame that people perceive you as so arrogant. Because it’s going to limit what you’re going to be able to accomplish in life. 
36. But it’s not just our bosses, we learn from our students. 
37.  Never lose the childlike wonder. It’s just too important. It’s what drives us. Help others.
38. Never give up. I didn’t get into Brown University. I was on the wait list. 
39. How do you get people to help you? You can’t get there alone. People have to help you and I do believe in karma. I believe in paybacks. You get people to help you by telling the truth. Being earnest. I’ll take an earnest person over a hip person every day, because hip is short term. Earnest is long term.
40. Apologize when you screw up and focus on other people, not on yourself. 
41.  Remember brick walls let us show our dedication. They are there to separate us from the people who don’t really want to achieve their childhood dreams. Don’t bail. The best of the gold’s at the bottom of barrels of crap.
42. Get a feedback loop and listen to it. Your feedback loop can be this dorky spreadsheet thing I did, or it can just be one great man who tells you what you need to hear. The hard part is the listening to it.
43. Anybody can get chewed out. It’s the rare person who says, oh my god, you were right. As opposed to, no wait, the real reason is… We’ve all heard that. When people give you feedback, cherish it and use it. 
44. Show gratitude. When I got tenure I took all of my research team down to Disneyworld for a week. And one of the other professors at Virginia said, how can you do that? I said these people just busted their ass and got me the best job in the world for life. How could I not do that?
45. Don’t complain. Just work harder. [shows slide of Jackie Robinson, the first black major league baseball player] That’s a picture of Jackie Robinson. It was in his contract not to complain, even when the fans spit on him.
46. Be good at something, it makes you valuable. 
47. Work hard. I got tenure a year early as Steve mentioned. Junior faculty members used to say to me, wow, you got tenure early. What’s your secret? I said, it’s pretty simple. Call my any Friday night in my office at ten o’clock and I’ll tell you.
48. Find the best in everybody. No one is all evil. Everybody has a good side, just keep waiting, it will come out.  
49. And be prepared. Luck is truly where preparation meets opportunity.
50. It’s not about how to achieve your dreams. It’s about how to lead your life. If you lead your life the right way, the karma will take care of itself. The dreams will come to you.  

Distillation into 25 Principles

1. Embrace the elephant in the room.
2. You will hit brick walls, don't give up.
3. Be prepared, be good at something, bring something to the table, it makes you valuable.
4. Give yourself permission to dream big, believe in your dreams, use the power of enthusiasm. 
5. The best way to teach is to have them think they’re learning something else. *My favorite.*
6. Know your limitations, honor those who exceed them,  be willing to say, "I don’t know."
7. Network with people via food and phone, in-person and remotely.
8. Give people time. 
9. Somebody’s head’s going to go on a stick.
10. Excuse yourself from the pissing match, avoid drama. 
11. Demonstrate and publish your results so others can benefit. 
12. Enable the dreams of others, you can't get there alone.
13. Build teams and keep them. 
14. Scale up successful efforts.
15. Don't be content with great.
16. Focus on others, read the body language.
17. Always be the worst musician in the band.
18. Go where they will give you the reins.
19. Seek and accept feedback from others.
20. Honor your parents, mentors, colleagues, students and friends.
21. Karma lives, arrogance will limit what you accomplish in life. 
22. Be sincere, be earnest, never lose the childlike wonder. 
23. Apologize when you screw up, show gratitude, don’t complain.
24. Work hard.
25. It’s not about how to achieve your dreams. It’s about how to lead your life. 

b) The whole concept of achieving your childhood dreams resonates with many people, but would not resonate with many others. It is a way to "self-actualize," which is a popular philosophy of life in America, perhaps more with certain segments of the the population than others. But there are other philosophies of life. Other philosophies of life that exist here and in other times and places include things like: (a) a good life is achieved by commitment to a particular religious tradition; (b) one's life should be about caring for (traditionally for women) or providing for (traditionally for men) one's family. It has been said that seeking happiness as a direct goal is a good way not to be happy, because happiness is not achievable as a direct goal, but rather occurs as a side effect of helping, or contributing to, or being important to, others. Discuss this important issue.


Paradoxically, we are often the most fulfilled, and thus happy, when we are helping others accomplish their goals. My wife says that, "When we forgive others, we set them free to be the person they really should be, the person they want to be". I totally agree with this. Forgiveness is a powerful force. Sometimes we have to forgive ourselves, so that we can be free to do the things that we know we are capable of, the things that we should be truly doing. In response to item a) There are various philosophies of life and religion. We know from history that blind obedience to the letter of religious law has often caused more harm than good. The spirit of the law that says, "Love others as you love yourself" is a powerful way to proceed. This reduces harm, the ultimate benevolent principle in a perilous world. Beliefs and the resulting actions that reduce or attenuate harm are actions of love. These can be carried out in very mundane but effective ways, like feeding or even just saying, "Hello", to a homeless person. In response to item b) we are living in the midst of changing roles in society. I believe each of us should do what we are uniquely equipped to do, to the maximum degree that our strength and ability allows. Tradition, for its own sake can stifle people from achieving their goals. I have no interest in tradition for its own sake, unless it has evolved in such a way as to reduce harm, such as the tradition of "Buckle your seat belt". Harm can include making someone feel bad for non-harmful choices that seemed perfect reasonable to them. People should never be humiliated into explaining why they make the choices they do, unless those choices have accidentally or intentionally brought demonstrable harm to others.

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6) (Grad students only; 25 points, totaling 125, so this HW will be worth 125 pts) Read 20 pages in the book you have obtained. Explain what you agree with, disagree with, learned from it, and how your views agree with or disagree with the reviewers of the book you are reading. 

I have moved this answer which was quite detailed to my ongoing review of the book, "The Human Race to the Future" a single curated document that is here. In the session for this question I reviewed chapters seven and eight of the book.